A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds a close presidential race: former President Donald Trump receives 51% and President Joe Biden gets 48% among registered voters, while Biden has a 51% advantage over Trump’s 49% among likely voters—those who say they are certain they will vote in the presidential election. The difference in advantage shows how the outcome of the election may be determined by the success of respective efforts to mobilize voters over the coming 13 months.

Table 1 shows vote choice by how likely respondents say they are to vote. Those who say they are absolutely certain to vote make up 80% of registered voters and give Biden an edge, while the 20% of the sample who say they are less than certain to vote strongly favor Trump. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)